In
the past few weeks a number of articles have been printed in relation to the
concept of a ‘Balkan Benelux’. It is an
initiative by a group of Albanians called AGREEI that ostensibly is for
bringing all four countries (Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro) into
Europe together – it claims it is modelled after the customs union between
Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
Seeing
that most of these Balkan countries are on the road to the EU in any case, why
would a customs union make any difference? If Macedonia or Montenegro applied
EU standards and EU laws to their countries, why would they need Albanian
assistance to do so? Who would it benefit? Maybe if we look at the people who
are behind it we will get a better understanding of motives.
The
President of AGREEI, Adrian Shehu is the CEO of an Albanian infrastructure
company, TCN – whose personal interests would be very much helped by Tirana’s
influence in the affairs of neighbouring countries when it comes to EU funded
infrastructure projects.
The
organization also, according to its website, has as a goal the ‘harmonization
of inter-ethnical (sic) relations’. This is a very worthy goal indeed, but it
is a little difficult. Due to the amount of bloodshed in the Balkans in the
recent past, not to mention the past few centuries, which has flowed through
ethnic conflict, the idea that an organization can reduce long held
insecurities is overly optimistic.
In
German folklore the character Faust is famous for his ‘Faustian Bargain’ where
he gives his soul to the Devil in exchange for knowledge. The danger in any of
these new supranational unions that have appeared is that countries are giving
their souls – their sovereignty and democratic freedoms – in exchange for
economic support or lofty ideals like ‘solidarity’. Faust made his deal with
the Devil, but if Faust ran into Forrest Gump, would he have made the deal with
him? What I mean by this is: ‘What if the union you are joining is incompetent
and flawed?’
What type of Union?
The
union being discussed is a Balkan Benelux. What is a Benelux and why would we
want one? I have an Electrolux vacuum cleaner; it sucks quite well, but
probably not as much as a Balkan Benelux would. The original Benelux was simply
a customs union. A customs union is great if you export products. You can
negotiate as one bloc to all the markets which you export to.
The
problem is that most of the countries involved don’t have much in the way of
exports. When they do export they generally do it to their Diaspora. Albania
doesn’t really export much, and if it does, it is agriculture across the
Adriatic to Italy. It can do that without having a trading bloc.
The
reality is that other than ethnic based food stuffs, there is very little in
the way of exportable products. You ever driven an Albanian made car? Flown in
a Kosovo made airliner? Given that no nations in the area are native English
speakers, the chances that they will contribute meaningfully in the global
media industry or publishing are low. There really isn’t much in the way of
exports for a Balkan export union to export; and for those few exports that
they do have, the Diaspora networks are far more important than a trading bloc.
‘Well
what about imports?’ I hear you ask. Well with imported cars for example – most
of the cars being imported into Albania are second hand and driven into the
country every summer; some of them even still have door locks. It is unlikely
that a customs union to protect the ‘domestic Albanian car industry’ for
example, would have any basis. People can and do freely import items into the
Balkans every day. There is no reason why a customs union would give any
advantage to a member state.
If it isn’t a customs union, what is it?
So
if our Balkan Benelux is not a ‘customs union’ like the real Benelux – what is
it? The AGREEI website states that countries that share the southern Balkans
are close to the Adriatic and are landlocked.
There
are four countries that Albanian Nationalists consider part of Greater Albania:
Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia and Montenegro. Which countries are being looked at
as part of this union? The same four. Why not include Bosnia and Herzegovina? Why
not include Serbia? Serbia after all is landlocked and closest to the Adriatic
and with Bosnia and Herzegovina is a candidate for the EU. The probable reason
is that if Serbia or Bosnia is included, the union would not be dominated by
Albania.
So
if there are no customs benefits, what would the real consequences be? If the
EU is any judge, and a number of articles have stated that they would seek a
mini-EU, is that sovereignty is pooled. Pooled sovereignty of course means a
transfer of government powers. In this case it would mean the transfer of
powers from states like Macedonia and Montenegro to the new Albanian Union
capital of Tirana. I will probably refer to this concept as Balkan Union or
Albanian Union a number of times; they mean the same thing. This union would
create a number of very severe problems.
Problem 1: Demography & ethnic tensions
Under
almost any conceivable scenario, a Balkan Benelux would result in Albanian
Nationalism’s long desired ‘Greater Albania’. There are three times more
Albanians in the proposed area (even more if you include those that return for
summer) than there are any other ethnicity. Now I know many lefty-liberals
would love us to get over the idea of ethnicity – but to many of them the
concept of ethnic cleansing is totally foreign. If you live next to people that
have no objection to killing you based on your language, religion or ancestry,
you do need to consider these things. There are a number of reasons why
concerns about ethnic pressures need to be considered.
Albania
has an overpopulation problem. On the World Over-Population Index, which
compares a countries population carrying capacity Albania is one of the most
overpopulated states in the world (22nd in the world). It is
becoming crowded. If the proposed Balkan Union had a similar policy to the EU
where people could freely move around, work and settle, non-Albanian states
would rapidly become lebensraum for
the growing Albanian population.
Albanians
also have an Islamic birth rate compared to the rest of Europe. The only other
ethnic groups in Europe that have similar birth-rates to the Albanians are
other Islamic population groups. As a consequence ‘Balkan Benelux’ would
quickly become ‘Balkanistan’ within a number of generations.
Is
it likely that a dominant ethnic group that runs the Balkan Union, which has
conducted insurgencies in most of its neighbouring countries, could not resist
the desire to let these insurgent groups have free reign. It is unlikely that a
nation with severe problems with all of its neighbours is going to ‘play well’
with others when it has been handed control over them. It would not even be a
Balkan Union; with the combination of high birth rates and irredentist
mentalities among many Albanian nationalists, any proposed Balkan Union would
very quickly become an Albanian Union.
Probably
the difference between an Albanian Union and Benelux is that there were no
ethnic issues that the Benelux agreement sought to deal with, it was merely a
customs union.
Problem 2: The Economic Management Issue
The
Dutch are gifted at finance – they have long been a global trade power; Luxembourg
are a nation of bankers; Belgium aren’t the world’s best managers, but can make
nice chocolate. Between the three of them they could probably make a union
work.
What
would happen if we were to hand the economic reins of the Southern Balkans over
to Albania to manage? Let’s look at Albania’s track record before we say any
more.
Their
first President Ramiz Alia, was sacked after plundering government money.
Their
second president was Sali Beresha. He promoted a host of government sponsored
pyramid schemes which helped launder money coming in from Albanian crime gangs
across the western world. These schemes were offering 25% per month! If Albania
can manage such high returns from government investments, maybe they can help
Greece? Of course like every other Ponzi scheme, eventually it fell over when
the flow of drug money, *ahem* ‘investment capital’, failed to increase to the
level required to sustain it. When it
fell over, was there a government bailout or some sort of IMF intervention
negotiated? No. People drove tractors to the nearest military base, looted the
armouries and started killing each other over debts and honour. Gangs of
ex-prisoners ran entire towns. This was all on his watch. He is now the Prime
Minister of Albania.
Unfortunately,
Albania is bereft of leadership talent. If leadership were NBA basketball,
Albania is the Charlotte Bobcats, or if leadership were the Premier League,
they are Derby County FC. The country
has failed repeatedly. If economic failure were an Olympic event, Albania would
take home gold every four years.
Could
you imagine walking into a bank, depositing as much as you wanted with no
identification required? Welcome to Albania. Up until recently there was little control in
the banking industry which made it easy for criminals to launder money.
Could
you imagine having a government advertising government sponsored Ponzi schemes?
Welcome to Albania. The people who were responsible for this mess are still in
power.
Could
you imagine having one of the poorest countries in Europe yet some of Europe’s
most expensive real estate developments? The IMF has reported that Albania controls
much of the heroin networks through Europe and the profits are being used to
build dozens of gaudy hotels and casinos on the Adriatic coast.
Could
you imagine letting rulers of an economic failed state like Albania run an
economic union? We can look at their currency at the moment to see how well
they manage. The Albanian Lek falls against and devalues consistently against
the Euro; in contrast the Macedonian Dinar is pegged to the Euro, the
Macedonian economy which is effectively running on Euros already. The Albanian
economy locked into the Euro would be another case of Greece. Albania is Greece
without a credit card.
I
just don’t know how I could sell the promise of Albanian economic management to
anybody. If I were subject to truth in advertising laws it would have to be
something like “Welcome to Albania, we are a corrupt Islamic country like
Egypt, except our Pyramids are also banks.” If joining the EU could be
considered a Faustian bargain, where Faust the philosopher in exchange for his sovereignty
trades with the Devil for knowledge and prosperity, well, we can understand
Faust’s faith; the Devil after all is probably competent, we’d hope the EU is
as well. Unfortunately if we put ourselves in the situation where we are
dealing with Albania, it is more like Faust bargaining with the financial
equivalent of Forrest Gump; we can offer all of our sovereignty, but there is
no track record to show that Forrest Shqip would be capable of managing affairs
even if he were well intentioned. Now to
quote Gump, that is all I have to say about that.
Problem 3: The religious issue
Lebanon
once had a majority Christian population. In its 1932 census, 54% of its
population was Christian; it was a perfectly functional state that was balanced
between different ethnicities. It was labelled the ‘Paris of the Middle East’.
However due to Islamic birth rates, the Christians became fewer in number – when
the numbers reached parity there came a civil war which at its heart was about
moving Lebanon from a secular government to an Islamic government.
It
is sad, but other than trying to outbreed Islamic groups like the Albanians,
the only way to stop a demographic takeover is to maintain sovereignty. A lack
of sovereign control over Macedonia’s borders would mean that the country is
rapidly swamped by cramped Albanians, making Macedonians a minority within
Macedonia. Would you like to be a Christian or secular minority in an Islamic
government? Ask an Egyptian Copt.
Problem 4: What if it doesn’t work out?
One
of the problems with the EU at the moment is that there is no clear way of
getting out. What if an Albanian Union was created in which a Balkan (Albanian)
Union military force was created? Is Albania a mature enough country to country
to not misuse military power in keeping their ‘newly conquered territory’ from voting
itself out of the union? I fear that like Hotel
California, we may be able to check out any time we like, but we will never
be able to leave.
The Protection of Sovereignty
The
EU has shown that many countries are quick to hand over sovereignty exchange
for prosperity. In some instances this has ended spectacularly bad. Greece, for
example, retains a shred of democracy and no dignity because it exchanged
sovereignty for a line of credit. One would
be hard pressed to see what benefit handing sovereignty to Albania could have;
and the downside could be terrible.
Macedonia’s
independence has been of such importance to us given our history of repression
and foreign rule; the last thing we should do is betray our forefathers and
sell out our independence for (in the case of an Balkan Union) some very poorly
placed hope in a union where the benefits are marginal and the damage done to
our sovereignty is permanent. Of course the probable answer given to us would be that this union would
only be a stepping stone to the EU.
Further
EU integration would also be in the hands of the Balkan Union; so what if after having
gained control over neighbouring states, the Balkan Union doesn’t want to integrate with
the EU? It could become its own stand alone sovereign Balkan Union - or an Albanian Yugoslavia, but given the way the wind is
blowing in Albanian states, it could also become the Islamic Union of Europe. Remember
that the original EU was designed as a customs union and is now trying to
become a nation state; why would the Albanian Union be any different?
Sovereignty
is a beautiful concept. Macedonia has it – something we have fought for. It is
a freedom that many in Europe have no taste for. We should not trade our
sovereignty for false promises of prosperity – certainly not for promises that
have such poor chances of success. //Alexandra Aleksovska
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